Hopeful revolution take on the hurting red bulls

I don’t care if you haven’t watched a single Revolution game this season.  I’m here to get you educated and excited about this weekend’s matchup between the New England Revolution and the New York Red Bulls. The game is at 730pm this Saturday, May 11th, taking place at Red Bull Arena in New Jersey. Let me introduce you to the key players, the key storylines, and everything you need to know to get excited about this game.

This is the 84th regular season matchup between these two teams. The Revolution hold the advantage with a 35-31-17 record, but that doesn’t tell us much about this game Saturday. A more significant stat would be the Red Bulls’ 24-9-9 record at home against New England, including 3-1-1 in their last 5 home games vs the Revs. To add to this home advantage narrative, the New York Red Bulls are unbeaten in their last 7 home matches across all competitions.

Before being acquired and taking on the Red Bull name, the team was known as the New York/New Jersey MetroStars. I did a quick google and started reading this article from 2006 announcing the name change, and the absolute disdain toward the MetroStars from this Jack Bell fella feels personal. This paints a picture of the first decade or so of this franchise’s existence. “The terminally mediocre MetroStars of Major League Soccer received a bracing jolt of Red Bull", "the new owner and operator of an M.L.S. team that has never played in the league championship game and has drawn dwindling crowds at cavernous Giants Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J." The team’s president and general manager at the time Alexi Lalas had ambitious hopes stating, "This will have a short-term impact on this team and a long-term impact like no one has ever seen." 18 years later, who are the impact players for this Red Bull roster?

Players to watch on the New York Red Bulls.

1. Lewis Morgan, #9, Winger

   1. Top 5 in the Golden Boot race for most goals this season.

   2. 7 goals and 2 assists through 11 games.

   3. Besides the goalkeeper, he’s played the second most minutes this season on the team.

   4. With 4.6 expected goals, and 7 actual goals, he has been over performing his expectations in that regard. And with 3 of those 7 goals coming in one match. Do we expect Lewis Morgan to continue at this pace?

2. Dante Vanzeir, #13, Forward

   1. Top 5 in assists this season (passing to his buddy Lewis Morgan).

   2. Has 3 goals to go along with 6 assists through 9 games played

      1. Vanzeir has 6 assists, three people above him are tied with 7 assists, and Messi tops the MLS with a whopping 12 assists.

   3. After suffering a lumbar spine injury in September 2023 that ended his season, it’s good to see Dante Vanzeir finding success and bouncing back this season.

3. Emil Forsberg, #10, Attacking Midfield

   1. His stats don't top the league or his team, but that doesn't match his presence on the field.

   2. Named to MLS Team of the Matchday for Matchday 12 despite a 6-2 loss to Miami. Showing his impact despite their struggles.

   3. Created the scoring opportunity for Dante Vanzeir against Miami with his patience and timing. Also buried a PK late in the game.

   4. Has had four appearances on the Team of the Matchday this year. He is an impact player and orchestrates offense for this team.

Bonus player!! Goalkeeper Carlos Coronel I’m identifying as a potential weakness of this Red Bulls team. Bottom 4 save percentage in the league at 61%. -1 or 0 goal differential depending where you look for the Red Bulls this year. The Revs should take advantage of this keeper.

Let's talk about the Red Bulls recent form. 1 win, 3 ties, and a big loss to Inter Miami last week. The win against Cincinnati dates back to April 6th. It was a strong win against a good team on the road. However, the Red Bulls haven’t secured 3 points in a match since. A home match against a struggling New England side looks to be a great opportunity to get back on track and secure the first win in over a month for the Red Bulls.

This season, the Red Bulls have a record of 4-2-5, and sit at 4th in the Eastern Conference, and 9th in the overall standings for the Supporters’ Shield. They typically play a 4-4-2 formation and like to play with a high press and intense style. They’ve become a bit more possessive of the ball than in the past, but still average about 42.5% per game for possession, compared to the Revolution who average 53.9%. Skimming the stats on MLSsoccer.com, the Red Bulls fall right in the middle of damn near every stat. Only stat they stand out is being tied for the least amount of offsides this season, and second most Red Cards. Make of that what you will.

How are the Red Bulls responding to their 6-2 loss against Messi and Miami? In their postgame press conferences, both Captain Emil Forsberg and Coach Sandro Schwarz commented on the teams perfect first half against Miami, but disappointing second half. The feeling in the locker room was not good after the loss, and there is a strong feeling of needing to come out strong and rebound against New England. After giving up two quick goals in the second half, the defense got stretched, and players like Messi punish in these situations. If the Revolution can get an early lead, they could force the Red Bulls into moving players forward and stretching their defense, allowing players like Gil, Chancalay, and Esmir, to expose them. That’s a sneak peak at my keys to victory for the Revs.

Enough about the Red Bulls, let's talk about the Revolution. Coming off their first road win of the season, beating the Chicago Fire 1-0 (you can read all about it in my last blog post here), the Revolution are looking to make that two road wins in a row this Saturday against the Red Bulls. The last five league matches has been a tumultuous run for the Revs. I’ve included the Club America games from the CONCACAF Champions Cup in the graphic below for added context of some of the beatings we’ve taken of late. Having those games plus the 4-1 loss to Mess and Miami behind us, we can now look to build on our lates result, a victory over the Chicago Fire at Soldier Field.

Three players I want to see stand out Saturday if the Revolution are going to beat the Red Bulls.

1.       Carles Gil. Easy answer. Our Captain. Our star player. He has 3 goals which leads the team this year and 1 assist which is tied for most with a few other players. If we can put Carles Gil in the right positions to succeed, which we often have struggled to this season, then we can expect positive results. Whether scoring spectacular goals with his left foot, or even more likely, setting up his teammates, Carles Gil can always be a difference maker.

2.       Tomas Chancalay. A goal against Miami two weeks ago in the first minute of the match and a banger of a goal last week against the Chicago Fire to secure the win in the second half last week. Tomas is building confidence each week as the season progresses after a bit of a slow start. Even more than I like the goals, I like his attitude. He commented this week that the mood in the locker room is much improved after a win last week. He’s happy to be scoring goals, but made sure to comment that scoring isn’t his only focus. He wants to help the team win anyway he can.

3.       Aljaz Ivacic. Goalkeeper. He was calm, comfortable with the ball at his feet, and made some big saves against the Fire. The commentators of the game mentioned that he came to the Revolution with something to prove. Through his first match, he has proven to have great potential in helping move this Revolution team in the right direction. Let’s see if he can bring another strong performance this weekend.

Bonus player!! Mark Anthony Kaye. Tying Xavier Arreaga with 68 touches for most in the game for the Revs against the Chicago Fire, if he is on the field, Mark Anthony Kaye will be all over the ball whether you like it or not. Now that I think about it. It makes sense Arreaga and Kaye had the same number of touches. Every time Kaye received a ball, he played it back to Arreaga. I joke…

Caleb Porter stressed that the Revolution are not concerned about the Red Bulls mindset going into the game. The Revolution are focused on having a good week of training, allowing them to continue building on the positives from their win against the Fire and building their identity. Good defense, high press, possessing the ball, playing out the back. In his postgame press conference after the win against the Fire Caleb Porter described their goals of getting their outside backs high up the field, allowing the wingers to crash the middle and overload that space, creating numerical superiority and opening up the defense. This is the vision he has for how he wants this team to play, and it’s slowly coming together. Porter says, “we’re still scratching the surface of the team that we want to be.”

What’s the fun of having a blog if I don’t make predictions? Give me 2-1 win for the Revolution. An early Chancalay goal to get in the heads of the Red Bulls. Force them to be a bit more aggressive. Open up the defensive for Gil to get creative. Give me a second goal from Carles Gil shortly after halftime. The Red Bulls will get a late goal. But it won’t be enough. Ivacic will be too solid. If I’m wrong, make sure to show this article to all your friends so they can all read for themselves how wrong I was.

Thanks for reading. Until next time. God bless. Go Revs.