A Rigorous and science based study into why the revolution can’t score goals
As I passed through the gates and descended into Gillette Stadium I felt a familiar energy rush through my body. There was a buzz in the air, and you could sense the anticipation. In the Revolution’s first home match since their record breaking 65,612 attendance game against Inter Miami, 34,947 attended this Saturday taking on the Philadelphia Union. Despite the cold, rainy day in Massachusetts, I could immediately feel the energy and sense the big crowd as I entered the stadium.
The Revolution came out the gates strong. With good possession play and a few offensive chances arising in the opening ten minutes, the Revolution looked to be continuing to their growth and development as a team, each week getting better despite what the results may say. Ivacic has continued to look strong, making a strong save 10:26 into the game, keeping control and not allowing any rebounds. However, all the positivity from the opening 10 minutes was quickly forgotten as Esmir sent an aerial ball back toward midfield to Ryan Spaulding, the only player left between the ball and the Revolution goal in the 14th minute. Spaulding couldn’t contain the pass and Mikael Uhre was quickly in transition for the Union. Spaulding played too aggressive and ultimately picks up the Red Card as Uhre goes to ground on the break away. In his postgame press-conference Caleb Porter commented, “not a smart play, not a good play,” regarding Spaulding’s attempt in the 14th minute.
This ultimately came to be the Revolution’s undoing. Despite some positive moments and a lot of fight, playing man down for 75+ minutes of the game is an “impossible task,” said Caleb Porter. At this point in the game, Caleb Porter stated, “everything we worked on in practice was lost when we went down a man.” I could see Mark Anthony Kaye having a conversation with coach Caleb Porter during an offensive possession, and soon settling into the vacant Left Back spot Ryan Spaulding had started the game at. Kessler picked up a soft Yellow Card shortly after the Spaulding red in the 17th minute. Another early yellow for Kessler, hampering his ability to be aggressive. Despite playing well down a man, the inevitable occurred when my first player to watch for the Union in my last blog, Jack McGlynn, sent an absolutely beautiful curving cross with his left foot which was headed home by Julian Carranza to go up 1-0 ~38mins into the game.
The Union exited the halftime break strong, going up 2-0 in the 47th minute with a goal from their club all time leading scorer Daniel Gazdag, another man to watch from my last blog. This goal was scored from close range, no chance for Ivacic to make a save, who was otherwise very strong in a lot of moments coming up with big saves for the Revolution. It seems many goals against the Revolution come from close range opportunities around the six-yard box where it’s almost impossible for the goalie to make a save. It was another example of bad defense, bad clearance, and a turnover in the back resulting in a goal against. I said the defense needed to step up in my keys to win the game. And they did not step up at all.
In my second half notes I commented how once again this felt like a game the Revolution were the stronger side, but still were down multiple goals. Maybe play isn’t improving, maybe our possession is a façade? Despite being down a man we were creating opportunities and continuing to fight. Polster was battling hard and winning tackles in his 100th regular season start for the Revolution. Ivacic continued to look strong with big saves in the second half. A positive sign for an otherwise struggling Revolution team. Despite the fight the team showed in front of their home fans, it wasn’t enough, and it was a scoreless night in New England for the Revolution.
The Revolution have the least goals scored this season in the entire MLS. That is 9 goals over the course of 12 matches. I went back and analyzed all the Revolution goals scored in the final 12 matches (skipping a scoreless game) of last season to get an equal sampling and try and figure out what has changed. In my 12 game sampling of the end of the 2023 regular season there were 21 goals scored. Here is a link to the match summary and highlights and a brief description of the goals scored and finally a reaction to how that differs from what we are seeing this season.
SCORING ANALYSIS:
Turnover by Philly, Noel Buck hits Carles Gil in space up the right flank who hits Gustavo Bou up the middle who takes two touches and blasts it past the keeper Andre Blake. Approximately 10 seconds from gaining possession to scoring the goal.
48:03 press on the wing, steal ball back from opponent, immediately cross from Bou to Chancalay, beautiful volley goal at 48:10. 7 seconds from steal to goal.
High press, steal ball right back after turnover at 70:29. Work the ball a bit on the flank, Carles orchestrating. Makes a shot for himself from his prime position, cutting inside with his left foot right outside the 18. Chancalay crashes the rebound for his second of the night. 70:41 goal, 12 seconds after getting the ball.
Left footed banger from Carles Gil. Individual play.
Carles cutting in from the right side, top of the 18, rip with the left deflection goal.
(A couple of individual efforts from Carles Gil. Something we have not put him in the position to do this year.)
Free flowing play, finds the space on the wing to play Dejuan Jones who sends a great cross to Tomas Chancalay to finish with a great volley.
Creative passing and possession in and around the opposing 18. 8 guys surrounding their 18 helping create offense. Noel Buck gets space from close to finish.
Carles Gil taking a player one on one on the wing, 6 players in the box. Plays back to Dejuan Jones who immediately sends it across for Dave Romney to head home.
Chancalay individual effort beating his man up the wing. Get numbers in the box and create some opportunities, deflections, and back to Chancalay who finishes with a bang.
Big ball from the back up the wing, immediate cross, got the ball to our best player, and Carles Gil finishes from right outside the 18 with his magical left foot.
Carles Gil corner kick, Omar Gonzalez crashes and strong header finish.
Switch fields in offense zone. Nacho Gil out wide, swings a cross in, finished first touch by his brother Carles.
(Winger delivering a strong cross, 6 bodies in the box. Not a wing back crossing to no one.)
27:20 steal ball, clever passes to get it up the wing, early cross, strong finish from Chancalay 27:31. Ten seconds from defense to goal.
Short corner play, Nacho Gil cross to Chancalay header back post.
Red Bull defensive line is all the way up to midfield. Kaye finds Vrioni breaking on a perfectly timed run to beat the defense, breakaway and finish the goal.
Pressing and win the ball back in the offensive zone. Bou gives to Gil on the wing, makes his run toward the box, where soon after Carles returns the favor with a beautiful cross and header goal from Bou.
High press and cause a turnover in the opposing teams half of the field. Quickly finds Harkes breaking up the middle who hits it first time, chipping the keeper to go up 2-0.
5 passes starting from midfield, out to the left wing, back across the center and top of the 18, over to the right one two pass Gil and Harkes, Harkes finishes for second goal of the night.
Big ball from the back up the right wing, quickly crosses which results in an own goal from the defender running back.
Carles plays it up the right wing, immediate cross, failed clearance, and Polster finishes a rocket of a shot from outside the 18.
7:53 defense wins the ball, Carles Gil take a few touches and hits Vrioni in stride breaking between the Center Backs. He fakes past the goalie and finishes into the empty night by 8:04. 11 seconds between turnover at our own 18-yard box, and goal at the other end.
MAJOR DIFFERENCES FROM 2023-2024
Scoring goals within ~10 seconds of gaining possession of the ball. We played incredibly direct in 2023. We didn’t muck around with possession for possessions sake. We hit our fast, explosive, talented players in space and let them work.
Listening to the Extra Time podcast this week with Andrew Wiebe and Matt Doyle, they were having a discussion regarding goal scoring. They remarked how besides Penalty Kicks, the best scoring opportunities in soccer are breakaways in terms of expected goals. In 2023, the Revolution were constantly playing on the counter attack and creating high percentage scoring opportunities by playing fast and direct. Whether a pass up the middle to hit Vrioni in stride, or a ball up the wing and quickly hit across goal to numerous players waiting. The Revolution were fun to watch. These highlights show that.
Rewatching some of these highlights, I forgot how fun we were last year. I was in the stadium for most of these home matches and was having so much fun. Watching back those two goals against DC United from Ian Harkes right after he joined the team was such a great memory. Now he barely touches the field, and when he does, he’s playing defensive midfield. Seeing Polster score that banger in the Atlanta game was awesome to remember. Rarely do we see Polster in a threatening position these days. The pass from Kaye to spring Vrioni against RBNY, something I’d never imagine happening this year as we find Kaye constantly passing backward (seemingly doing what he’s instructed by his coach).
In 2023 the Revolution were putting their best players in positions to succeed. So often in these highlights we see Carles Gil at the center of it all. Combining with teammates with one two passes and springing them forward for scoring opportunities. Beautiful bending crosses with his left foot to players like Bou and Chancalay to finish strong. Carles is not being given these same opportunities to impact the game in 2024. In fact, it feels like all our players are not being put in their best positions to succeed. Or we are not playing key members of the 2023 squad at all, such as Dave Romney. Here is a screenshot from the media preview posted by the Revolution before their final 2023 home game last season. Shows how integral to the squad this man was. According to Caleb Porter, his play in 2024 has not been enough to earn him time.
In 2023 the Revolution had possession with a purpose. In 2024, we pass around to our goalie and between our defense in areas that have absolutely no threat except for the threat of a turnover right in front of our own goal for a prime opportunity for the other team. In the highlights above where we see possession, it’s all done inside the opposing teams half of the field. We are swinging the ball from left to right in front of their 18 looking for ways to penetrate and get easy chances from in close. We were sending in dangerous crosses to a box full of 6-8 players ready to finish. Effective crosses from talented players. Not a consistent attack comprising of Nick Lima or Ryan Spaulding breaking up the flank, forcing wingers inside. The wingers who should instead be breaking up the flank to play balls into the box.
All in all, it’s been a frustrating season. It seems Caleb Porter is more concerned about implementing his strategy rather than winning games. He says we are improving. We are doing better in training and improving playing ‘our game’. So, if the goal is to ‘play our game’. We are slowly succeeding. The problem is, ‘our game’, will never result in actual victories of scoring more goals than the opponent.
Let the boys loose, let them play fast and have fun. Let’s score some goals. Let’s get some wins.
Some stories from around the league:
Chicho Arrango and Andres Gomez continue to light it up for Real Salt Lake in a 5-3 Rocky Mountain Cup victory over the Colorado Rapids.
NYCFC best the Red Bulls in the battle for New York in the Hudson River Derby.
Bernadeschi leading Toronto with a hattrick in a derby win over Montreal.
Leo Campana, subbed in during extra time, 17 seconds and 2 touches later he scored the game winner for Inter Miami over DC United.
Lucho Acosta in magnificent form for FC Cincinnati. 1 goal and 2 assists against St. Louis. 152 goal contributions in his MLS career.
God Bless. Go Revs.
