Who Should The Red Sox Sell At The Trade Deadline?
While the sun has yet to set on the 2024 Boston Red Sox, it is time that Red Sox fans begin to accept the reality of the 2024 season. The 2024 team has had a few extraordinary bright spots, but as a whole, the Red Sox are stuck in the mud. The reality of the Red Sox situation is that they need to start considering which players represent pieces of future playoff runs, and which should be cashed in for prospects that might be able to help the team down the road. In my mind, there are a few obvious candidates that should be dealt at the trade deadline. Let’s break down some of the players that should be dealt to contending teams prior to the July 30th deadline….
Tyler O’Neill
REASONS TO TRADE:
Tyler O’Neill is a player who diehard Red Sox fans have never had a chance to truly fall in love with. While he had an unbelievable start to the season, those who follow the team beyond their twitter feed will know that O’Neill has been a complete liability at times. O’Neill has a strikeout rate of 33.3%, meaning he strikes out exactly once for every three at bats. Beyond that, O’Neill seems to have a knack for hitting into double plays. I can’t seem to find a statistic to back this up, but it certainly feels like O’Neill grounds into more double plays than any player I have seen play in Boston. Beyond the overrated plate production though, O’Neill has some outside factors working against his potential future in Boston.
The emergence of Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela give the Red Sox a number of outfield options going forward. Additionally, the ascension of Roman Anthony through the ranks of the Red Sox minor league system provides a potential long-term piece in the outfield. Roman Anthony is obviously still a prospect, however, he profiles as a similar style player to Tyler O’Neill. While Anthony hits lefty and O’Neill hits righty, both are speedy, power hitting outfielders with above-average defense.
All things considered, Tyler O’Neill could yield an interesting prospect as a return in a deadline ‘rental’ trade. For a comparison, the Red Sox traded away away Christian Vazquez to the Houston Astros as a rental back in 2022. Who did the Red Sox receive in return for three months of Vazquez’s services? In the deal, the Red Sox acquired rookie of the year candidate Wilyer Abreu, as well as Enmanuel Valdez. While Valdez appears on track to be a solid pro, Abreu has already emerged as the Red Sox right fielder for years to come. All of this is to say, Tyler O’Neill can and should be dealt at this years trade deadline.
REASONS TO HESITATE:
I don’t think the Red Sox should have any reservations in trading away Tyler O’Neill. He has had some fun moments with the Red Sox, but he is not a part of the team’s long-term plans. Moving on from O’Neill in exchange for any decent prospect should be an absolute no-brainer.
POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS:
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
Rob RefSnyder
REASONS TO TRADE:
Utility outfielder Rob Refsnyder might yield the greatest return out of any player on the Red Sox roster. Through 35 games, Refsnyder has a career high .953 OPS (behind only Devers), with a 164 wRC+ (the best of any qualified Red Sox hitter). The lefty specialist has had success against both left-handed, and right-handed pitching in 2024, making him a valuable trade piece for Boston. If the Red Sox are looking to capitalize and sell high on a player they have invested in minimally, now is the time to trade Refsnyder. His value will never be as high as it is right now.
REASONS TO HESITATE:
As bad as it sounds, trading away Refsnyder could have adverse effects on Boston’s young roster. One thing that has made itself clear throughout the 2024 season is Refsynder’s importance in the clubhouse. With the Red Sox vocal spring training leader Trevor Story going down early in the year, the Red Sox young players have stated that Refsnyder has been the guy they go to for advice. Refsnyder’s contract also contains a 2025 club option for $2 million, making Refsnyder more than a ‘rental’. Despite Refsynder’s journeyman career, all of these factors should make him the most coveted Red Sox hitter at the trade deadline. It is hard to say exactly what Refsynder could return in a potential trade, but given his importance in the clubhouse, it better be a player who makes it worth sacrificing the Red Sox most important leader in the clubhouse.
If Boston does elect to keep Rob Refsnyder, I personally believe that the team’s reasoning will be the ‘value’ of Refsnyder’s contract compared to his production. If there is one thing we know about this ownership group, they love a good deal. With only $2 million on the books for the 2025 season, ownership will likely look to keep him as the team’s 4th outfielder.
POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS:
Kansas City Royals
Seattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
Nick Pivetta
REASONS TO TRADE:
In a 2023 postgame press conference, following a 9-3 loss to the Atlanta Braves, losing pitcher Nick Pivetta was pissed, and his responses with reporters were snippy at best. In response to a reporter suggesting Pivetta’s starting role could be changed, Pivetta said, “I don’t really understand what you’re saying, but I’m just going to continue to go out and do my job.” and “I’ve started for this team my whole entire career. I’m going to continue to do that. By the end of the year, I’m going to continue to do that, then next year and the year on out.”. I really did not like these comments, especially with Pivetta’s implication that the reporter is crazy enough to suggest the idea of a potential change of roles. Not long after these comments, Alex Cora moved Pivetta to a bullpen role, where he came on in relief of a 1-2 inning opener (often Brennan Bernardino). To give Pivetta credit, he seemingly embraced this new role, and pitched very well for a long stretch of the season, ultimately resulting in Pivetta having his best full season in a Red Sox uniform.
Despite Pivetta’s 3.96 ERA in 2023, his major league numbers tell a clear story. The one thing that becomes abundantly clear looking at Pivetta’s career, is that Nick Pivetta is as consistently mediocre as they come. Since his arrival in Boston, Pivetta has not had an ERA under 3.96 or over 4.55. With Alex Cora’s departure imminent, it seems unlikely that Boston is looking to sign Nick Pivetta to a significant extension.
REASONS TO HESITATE:
The only thing that makes me hesitate to suggest trading Nick Pivetta is the team’s lack of pitching depth. If the Red Sox were to lose Pivetta today, the replacement in the rotation would likely be either Josh Winckowski or Chase Anderson…. and there is a reason that one guy only pitches garbage time, and the other is in Worcester. If a team in playoff contention needs an arm to add to their bullpen, or has a starter go down long-term, aqcuiring a guy like Pivetta to eat innings would make a lot of sense. From a Red Sox perspective, dealing Nick Pivetta would be a significant blow. One which would certainly destine the Red Sox to once again finish in the basement of the American League East. If we are being honest though… it seems like the team might be headed in that direction anyways.
POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS:
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Baltimore Orioles
Atlanta Braves
Kenley Jansen & Chris Martin
REASONS TO TRADE:
Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin are probably the most obvious candidates to be traded at this year’s deadline. The aging pair of relievers still have a lot left to give, but both 38 year old Martin and 36 year old Jansen are nearing the end of great careers. Over the next month, there will be a number of playoff teams looking to shore up the back end of their bullpens. At this point, keeping these guys in Boston is not only going to actively hurt the Red Sox organization in the long run, but also serve as disrespect to both of the veteran pitchers. Both of these players were brought in under the Chaim Bloom regime, and sold a false bill of goods that the team would be on a fast-track to a playoff return. Fast forward a year, and both Martin and Jansen find themselves stuck on a mediocre baseball team that is not on pace to make the post-season. It would simply be a good gesture of professional courtesy to allow the duo to depart for greener pastures at the deadline. If the two are traded as a package to a contending team, I don’t doubt that they could return a good prospect, or a small group of long-term ‘project’ pitching prospects.
While both Martin and Jansen have a lot left to give this season, I don’t think replacing their roles in the lineup will be all that difficult. The team awaits the return of veteran closer Liam Hendriks, whom Boston signed to a two-year free agent deal this past off-season. Hendriks is no spring chicken, but upon his return, he should be just as good (if not better) than Jansen. Twenty Six year old Justin Slaten on the other hand, is primed to step up and take over as the set-up guy for Boston, replacing the aging Martin.
REASONS TO HESITATE:
I genuinely see no benefit to holding on to these guys. If they must be traded in separate deals, so be it. Ship them out to any contending teams looking to add veteran arms for a playoff run. Make it happen Craig Breslow.
POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS:
Philadelphia Phillies
Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers
